As we move through 2025, the oil and gas sector is contending with a familiar tension—growing global supply against a backdrop of uncertain demand. At Eagle River Advisors, we believe this volatility creates selective, high-conviction opportunities for strategic investors who understand the underlying fundamentals shaping the market.

Crude Oil: A Balancing Act of Supply and Sentiment

Q2 2025 opened with optimism in the oil markets, with Brent crude briefly surpassing $91 per barrel in early April. However, prices softened quickly in the following weeks, pressured by persistent macroeconomic uncertainty and weakening demand growth in key economies.

According to the Investing News Q2 2025 Oil & Gas Forecast, “crude oil prices have been largely influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and global supply expansion.” That shift in sentiment, particularly in response to tepid economic data from China and Europe, has underscored how vulnerable the market remains to real-time global indicators.

For investors, this means focusing less on short-term speculation and more on quality. Companies with low-cost assets, high operating discipline, and low leverage are best positioned to outperform in an environment where prices may remain range-bound.

Natural Gas & NGLs: Quiet Strength in the Background

Natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs) are playing an increasingly important role in shaping global energy trends. The same Q2 2025 forecast points out that “NGLs are expected to account for more than half of the total liquids supply growth from 2023 to 2030,” with North America and the Middle East leading this transformation.

Despite seasonal softness, US gas prices have remained relatively stable due to LNG export demand and colder-than-expected winter weather earlier in the year. This suggests that gas and NGL-linked assets may offer more stable long-term growth than oil in today’s macro landscape.

We believe infrastructure-focused opportunities—such as midstream partnerships and petrochemical feedstock supply chains—could benefit significantly from these structural shifts. Additionally, assets connected to LNG export terminals remain strategically important, particularly as Europe and Asia continue to diversify their energy sources.

Macro Themes Worth Watching

Even with infrastructure projects like Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline coming online, the market remains sensitive to external shocks. The Investing News report reinforces this point: “The market remains vulnerable to shocks, even as fundamentals improve.” In short, the structural foundation is improving, but geopolitical volatility and demand unpredictability can still sway the market sharply.

At the same time, the global push for energy diversification continues to reshape long-term investment flows. Regions investing in both fossil fuel resilience and transition energy sources are likely to be more competitive in the years ahead.

What This Means for Eagle River Clients

At Eagle River Advisors, our approach isn’t swayed by daily headlines. We focus on strategic positioning, long-term value creation, and selective exposure to high-quality assets. Based on our analysis of the Q2 environment, we are prioritizing:

• Producers with disciplined capital allocation and low break-even thresholds

• Increased exposure to NGL and LNG-linked infrastructure

• Asset-backed investment strategies in geopolitically stable regions

By maintaining a rigorous focus on value and risk, we help our clients navigate the kind of volatility that often confounds short-term strategies.

Q2 2025 has reminded the market of a familiar truth: volatility reveals value. While oil prices may oscillate due to shifting global sentiment, the fundamentals for gas, liquids, and infrastructure-based assets remain resilient and promising.

At Eagle River Advisors, we’re positioned to help investors capitalize on this evolving energy landscape with insight, agility, and strategic clarity.